Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
