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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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